BECAUSE ONE DISTRICT MIGHT HAVE SCHOOL CANCEL, BUT ANOTHER DISTRICT MIGHT NOT. SO WELL. AND EVERYTHING ABOUT THIS FORECAST IS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE POSITION OF EVERYTHING, IS VERY, VERY IMPORTANT AND THAT’S MAYBE PLAYS INTO THE DECISION OF WHAT WHAT SCHOOLS CANCEL AND WHAT SCHOOLS DON’T. AND THIS IS SOMETHING THAT YOU’RE DEFINITELY GOING TO WANT TO TUNE INTO. SO LET’S LOOK AT THE 11:00 ADVISORY. THIS IS A LOOK AT THE LATEST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. WE KNOW AT THIS POINT IT’S GOING TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. THAT IS A DEFINITE. WE ALSO KNOW THAT IT’S GOING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. SEE THE DIFFERENCE, THOUGH, BETWEEN THE 5 A.M. TRACK AND THE 11:00 TRACK IS HOW NOT JUST HOW QUICKLY IT’S GOING TO INTENSIFY, BUT HOW HIGH WILL IT GET? WE’RE LOOKING NOW AT 125 MILE PER HOUR WINDS. YES, THAT IS CONSIDERED A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE, BUT WHEN WE SHOW YOU THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE, THE CATEGORIES, ONE, TWO, THREE, FOUR AND FIVE, CATEGORY THREE AT THE END OF THAT SUSTAINED WIN IS 129MPH. AND IT’S FORECAST TO BE 125MPH. SO WE’RE ACTUALLY GETTING CLOSE TO THE CATEGORY FOUR STATUS. THIS IS GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA. AND ONE OF THOSE BIG IMPACTS IS GOING TO BE THE STORM SURGE FOR BIG BEND AREA. NOT SO MUCH FOR OUR COAST LOCATIONS BECAUSE WHEN THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST OR TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WE’LL ACTUALLY HAVE OFFSHORE WINDS. BUT IT’S GOING TO BE A HUGE PROBLEM FOR OUR GULF COAST. WE’RE TALKING NINE FOOT STORM SURGE OR EVEN HIGHER, SOMETHING THAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH HURRICANE IAN IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ON TOP OF THAT, WE’RE ALSO LOOKING AT RAINFALL TOTALS, NOT LIKE WITH IAN, BUT DEFINITELY GOING TO BE FLOODING POTENTIAL ALONG I 75, 4 TO 5IN OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SO WE’RE WATCHING THAT POSSIBILITY IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW FOR FLOODING AND THEN I-4 AND OUR CENTRAL LOCATIONS AND WEST, IT’S DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. THAT’S WHY WE HAVE A FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER COUNTY AND RECENTLY IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARION COUNTY, A FLOOD WATCH AS WELL. THAT’S GOING TO GO UNTIL THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY, RAIN IS JUST ONE PIECE OF THE FORECAST. THE OTHER OBVIOUSLY, ERIC IS GOING TO BE THE WIND. OH, YEAH. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. WHEN WE THINK OF HURRICANES, WINDS AND HURRICANES ARE SO SYNONYMOUS, RIGHT? SO LET’S LOOK AT THE PEAK WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. BY FAR AND AWAY, THE BIG BEND AND ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH THE BAY, THERE IS GOING TO BE THE MAIN AREA FOR MAJOR HURRICANE WINDS, UPWARDS OF STRONG CATEGORY THREE. BUT RIGHT THROUGH WESTERN MARION COUNTY HIGHLIGHTED IN RED, THERE’S YOUR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF MARION COUNTY, STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THAT INCLUDES SUMTER COUNTY AND THEN BASICALLY I 75 OFF THROUGH THE METRO AND INTO THE EAST COAST. WE’RE LOOKING AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ONE TAKE AWAY FROM THIS JUST AN EASY TAKEAWAY, THOUGH, IS THAT THE YELLOW SHOULDN’T BE RULED OUT AS POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WINDS. REMEMBER, TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS, THAT’S 40, 50, ALMOST 60 MILE PER HOUR WINDS. THAT’S A ROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING TYPE WINDS THAT’S POTENT IN AND OF ITSELF. SO KEEP THAT IN MIND. WHEN DOES IT BEGIN? WELL, THAT FIRST BAND OF RAIN I SHOWED IT TO YOU ON THE FUTURECAST MODEL JUST A MOMENT AGO. THAT FIRST ONE COMES IN AROUND 5 P.M. THAT’S THE OUTER MOST BAND OF TROPICAL DOWNPOURS. GUSTY WIND, HEAVY TORRENTIAL RAINS. THAT’LL BE ABOUT FIVE, SIX, 7:00. AND THEN AS THAT LIFTS TO THE NORTH, WE’LL BE QUIET. BUT THEN ANOTHER BAND COMES IN A LITTLE BROKEN AROUND MIDNIGHT. THEN WE LOOK TWO, THREE, 4 A.M. AND THAT’S WHEN WE START TO SEE SOME OF THAT ROUGHER WEATHER MOVING IN. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL NORTH AND WEST OF US. BUT IT’S THESE WRAPAROUND BANDS THAT COME THROUGH. AND THERE’S THAT TORNADO WARNING DOWN NEAR MARCO ISLAND IN THE SOUTHWEST COAST. GUESS WHAT? WE’RE GOING TO BE IN THAT RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT TOMORROW. SO ONCE AGAIN, ANY ONE OF THESE COULD GET SPINNING AND I FULLY ANTICIPATE WE’RE GOING TO HAVE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES TOMORROW, 1 P.M. THE HURRICANES PULLING AWAY INTO GEORGIA, FOR GOODNESS SAKE. BUT THAT TRAILING BAND OF ACTIVITY STILL IS AROUND. IT’S GOING TO BE GUSTY. IT’S GOING TO BE WET AT TIMES. AND THEN LITTLE BY LITTLE, WE WILL BE IMPROVING. SO THAT CERTAINLY IS THE GOOD NEWS. TAKING THE COUNTY BY COUNTY. LAKE COUNTY, 4 A.M., THE WORST OF THE WEATHER GETS GOING FOR YOU, GUS. 50 TO 55 MILES AN HOUR, 3 TO 4IN OF RAINFALL. BUT WE SHIFT TO THE EAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AND THOSE GUSTS KIND OF KEEP IN THAT 55 TO 60 MILE PER HOUR RANGE. BUT THE RAINS ARE GOING TO BE DROPPING 2 TO 4IN. AND FOR VOLUSIA COUNTY, I THINK WE’RE RUNNING ABOUT 55 TO 65. COASTAL RAINS A LITTLE LESS THAN OUR INLAND SPOTS. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS. THE NEXT, SAY, 24 TO 36 HOURS ARE GOING TO BE ROUGH BECAUSE THERE’S A HURRICANE MOVING THROUGH. HERE’S A LOOK AT THE COMPUTER FORECAST MODELS. NOAA. NOTICE, THOUGH, THEY’RE RIGHT IN THE CENTER OF THAT FORECAST CONE. IT COULD DEVIATE A LITTLE LEFT OR RIGHT, AND THAT WOULD GIVE US MORE OR LESS WINDS. BUT FOR NOW, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THAT IS WHERE WE’RE GOING TO SEE THIS HURRICANE GO. JUST HAVE TO WAT